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Financial variables are more uncertain than you think

Financial variables are more uncertain than many investors recognise. That message is worth recalling at the present juncture where both short-term and long-term interest rates are seen as close to their peaks. While many commentators may expect both to decline slowly, history suggests that they may move by large amounts in either direction in the coming months. In this Macro Flash Note, NPI Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach looks at historical data for three-month and 10-year Treasury yields to show just how difficult they are to predict.